El Nino Promises Exciting Weather – 2015 Harvest

Predicting the weather is a tricky, business. Though long-range weather forecasting is risky, it plays an integral role in planting, harvesting, and crop pricing. Love them or hate them, weather models are essential in agriculture.

I pay attention to several forecasting services in an effort to anticipate disease pressure, crop yields, and harvest dates. Over the last few weeks, these models have started to come into alignment, and now predict a strong El Nino event occurring in 2015-2016, peaking in January and February next year. In the short run, this may lead to monsoonal weather patterns, bringing subtropical moisture into Northern California along with unseasonable thundershower activity. We have seen considerable activity this month in Southern California, including heavy rains that eroded part of Interstate 10. I anticipate Livermore Valley may see some of this activity in the next month, and am preparing for it.

My biggest concern is for the Fall. US and European weather models continue to predict that this El Nino event will be the strongest on record. Rains could begin early and be torrential. Harvest looks early this year, so we may dodge the bullet and avoid the rain at harvest that was problematic in 2011. Nevertheless, we are taking steps to prepare for the worst. We are actively cleaning out storm drains and practicing rain scenarios in the winery. Hopefully, the rains will come as we are closing our cellar doors on the 2015 harvest. But regardless, the western states need rain more than wine, so let us hope for the rainy season the models predict. It looks exciting- stay tuned.